← all work03 / 14 · ch. 01 — predict

Prediction Market Map

[ repo · porvenir ]

A map of everything humanity is betting on.

Every open binary market on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold — thousands of questions about elections, wars, AI, rates, weather, the end of the world — fetched, embedded by meaning, and drawn as a navigable galaxy.

Kindruns in the browser
StatusLive
PlatformWeb
Year2026
live buildeach star is an open question · size = money at stake · colour = what the crowd believes · drag, scroll, hoveropen ↗
About

Every star is a question about the future. Its size is the money at stake, its colour is what the crowd currently believes, and questions about similar things cluster into constellations named after their own vocabulary. Pan, zoom, hover a star to read it, click through to the live market.

The sky is built in a pipeline: fetch open binary markets from three venues’ public APIs with quality filters at the door — real quotes only, minimum liquidity or open interest — embed each question’s text, reduce with t-SNE, and name each cluster by the words that distinguish it from the rest. The repo ships with a prebuilt sky so the map works immediately; rebuilding with fresh markets takes a minute or two.

What's in it
  • Three venues, public APIs, no keys — Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold
  • Sentence embeddings + t-SNE for the layout; TF-IDF vocabulary names the constellations
  • Star size = money at stake, colour = crowd probability, rings mark play-money markets
  • Search the future — type a word and the matching stars light up
  • WebGL rendering of thousands of markets at 60fps
  • Prebuilt data.json in the repo; one command rebuilds the sky
Stack
Pythonsentence-transformersscikit-learnWebGLJavaScript